JF :: Brain Farts :: Archive of November, 2008

Archive of November, 2008

Not Bad For a Guesstimate

November 24, 2008:

I don't know why I thought of it, but last week while I was at the National Geographic warehouse sale at the DC Armory I decided that I wanted to know how big DC was from the Capitol to one of the points. I wasn't at home, so I'd have to do the math in my head. And I'm a big enough dork that I did.

According to the Constitution, the Federal District (aka DC) can be, at most, a square 10 miles on a side. The Capitol Building sits at the center of that square. (With Arlington County and Alexandria City having been retroceded to Virginia, the District is no longer a square.) So now we need to find the distance from the center of the square to the corners, knowing the length of the sides.

Cutting from the corners to the center we create a set of 45-45-90 triangles. Since the sides of such a triangle are in the ratio 1:1:sqrt(2) we know that the corner-center length must be 10mi/sqrt(2).

That's a pain to figure out. Let's multiply by sqrt(2)/sqrt(2) and make it 10sqrt(2)mi/2. Much better. Sqrt(2) is about 1.414 so we have 14.14/2, or 7.07 miles.

Now, I don't know how much 0.07 of a mile is. 0.1 of a mile is 528 feet, 0.05mi is 264 feet, and 0.01mi is 52.8. Let's call that 53 for now and come back to it. 0.07 is 0.05 + 0.01 + 0.01, so we'll say 264 + 53 + 53. That's 264 + 106, which is 370. We added 0.2 feet twice, so it's really 369.6 feet.

So how much is 0.6 of a foot? Well, 0.5 is 6 inches and 0.1 is 1.2 inches, so that's 7.2 inches. Let's call it 7 1/4 inches, since that's how rulers are usually marked.

Grand total: 7 miles, 369 feet, 7 1/4 inches. Now how close was I?

Plugging the real value for sqrt(2), or at least as close as my computer can get, into the equation eventually yields 7 miles, 375 feet, 2 7/8 inches. That's a difference of 5' 7 5/8", which is about my height. To use units people actually care about, it's a factor of about 15/100,000, or 0.015%. Not bad for a "quick" guess.

Of course, now that I've said that I should point out that it's impossible to drive exactly 7.07... miles and get to the edge of DC. For starters, your car won't be allowed in the Capitol. Secondly, there are no straight lines to the corners. On the west you have to cross the river onto I-66, which bends. To the east you have to detour around RFK Stadium. To the south the point is in the middle of the Potomac River near the Wilson Bridge. To the north, Capitol Street bends around such that the street that comes closest to running through the point is 16th Street NW, near where a friend of mine used to live in Silver Spring.

But if anyone asks, now you now.

Edit, 4:07 PM: And apparently I was wrong -- the Capitol is not at the center of the District. It appears to be offset just slightly south and quite a bit east. The closest structure to the center seems like the Washington MonumentWhite House, according to the Senate web site. My fault; I just assumed that the center of the grid system was also the center of the square. Still an interesting exercise though.

Edit, 11/26: Before I forget... It turns out the White House isn't dead-center either; the square's center point is just west of the ellipse. 16th Street does make a straight run north, so if any of the points were to be reachable in 7.07 miles, that would have been it. Well, except for the fact that 16th starts a block from the White House.

And looking at Google Maps, I see the White House has been un-obscured -- you can see the roof cleanly now, but it the alleged anti-aircraft guns are up there they've been photoshopped out. Everything within Observatory Circle, not just the Vice President's mansion, are still pixellated. Just in case you were wondering who's really been in charge the last eight years. The Capitol's roof is also plainly visible nowadays, so it's really just Cheney that gets to hide.

Votin' and Bloggin'

November 04, 2008:

So, here's today's special edition. Not entirely sure what I'll do with it, but I figure I'll provide at least a little commentary. If the RSS feed is working properly it should change the update time whenever I make a change.

And this is it, the final day (hopefully) of the election season. That's been going on since Obama declared his candidacy in February of 2007. I've made no secret of who I'm voting for, and anyone who knows me pretty much already knows why. (Though I will say that the last couple months have pushed me far enough from libertarianism that I wouldn't feel right using the term to describe myself. "Liberal" it is.)

This post should become active at midnight, meaning there are six hours until the polls open in Virginia. Note to self when updating in the morning: Check the Fairfax County web site and see if there are any problems anticipated at my voting location.

Edit, 6:15 AM: Looks like the county web site won't be useful in letting me know if there are lines and/or other delays. A friend just posted to Facebook that he's waiting in line in Arlington County as of the opening of the polls (6:00 AM), so I'll find out in about 90 minutes whether there'll be any delays here.

Edit, 6:44 AM: As part of my "Fake Virginia vs. Real Virginia" post from last week, I'm also going to be checking out the combined returns from VA + WV... in other words, if West Virginia hadn't seceded from Virginia. "Original Virginia" has a population of 9.4 million, making it the 10th most-populous state. It would have 13 congresspeople, and 15 electoral votes. This means that, overall, the conjoined state would lose one representative and (as it stands pre-election) two Democratic senators. Bush won the last two presidential elections in both states and McCain is expected to win this time in WV. Obama is currently forecast to win VA.

Edit, 8:39 AM: Got to my polling place at 7:29 and was out the door at 8:14. Not bad considering they were expecting record turnout, and that the former governor (now mayor of Richmond) was worried about lines being too long for people. In addition to the electronic machines, they do have Scantron-type paper ballots for people who want to kick it old-school. I'd say they handled the influx rather well.

Edit, 9:38 AM: From Fox News: Polls have already closed in two New Hampshire towns, because everybody's already voted. So far, Obama's up.

Edit, 9:52 AM: Found via Howard, from NBC's site. Keith Olbermann is the host of MSNBC's show Countdown, and over the last several months has devolved into the left's version of Bill O'Reilly. Actually, that's not quite true. O'Reilly is more paranoid, and Olbermann has more spittle-flying rages. So it's kind of a wash.

(Here's the part where it kinda-sorta has to do with the election.)

Starting in (IIRC) 2006, Olbermann would replace the final story on his show with a "Special Comment" from time to time. Basically something that the administration had done to really piss him off, and he wanted to do a rant/open letter to Bush about. The first few were good. They got old fast. And lately he's been doing "Campaign Comments" every day, to avoid diluting the "Special Comment" concept, or somesuch.

Honestly, I'm almost ready to walk the dog during Countodwn and start watching Rachel Maddow's show in its entirety instead. He's gotten that annoying to me, and I've become more of a lefty since Bush has been in office.

Anyway, On Saturday Night Live last weekend they had McCain on, and the host Ben Affleck did a not-as-exaggerated-as-one-would-hope parody of Olbermann's comments. Enjoy:

I promise, the next update will be at least slightly relevant to what's going on today.

Edit, 12:21 PM: I am rather disappointed in the lack of good new LOLs on Pundit Kitchen.

Edit, 1:35 PM: Some places, like Ben & Jerry's, give you free stuff if you show your "I Voted" sticker. Chipotle is not one of those places. Burrito was good though.

Edit, 2:57 PM: In glancing at both CNN and Fox News, I'm seeing word of mistakes (polling stations getting the wrong rosters), long lines and occasional ballot shortages. Nothing that looks orchestrated, though I'm sure that accident or no some people had to leave and go to work before they had a chance to vote. Here in NoVA, where people tend to live several miles from their jobs, lines were long when polls opened at 6, probably experienced a spike around noon, and will most likely suck again after 5:00. Which may be a problem, as the polls close at 7:00.

Edit, 3:12 PM: Starbucks gives out free coffee if you vote. BRB.

Edit, 6:14 PM: The lines I was anticipating weren't there. If you haven't voted yet and you're in my area, now would be a good time. Especially with the polls closing in 45 minutes.

Edit, 9:05 PM: Was at a friend's house, watching the returns come in. Didn't see any real difference in coverage between ABC and NBC, except NBC spent more time on senate elections. They also called Pennsylvania a few minutes later than ABC did. Current electoral guesstimate on NBC is Obama 175-76.

Edit, 9:10 PM: Fox has given New Mexico to Obama, nothing yet from NBC. CNN's site has the Dems grabbing 52 seats so far, though I think that includes the two "independents".

Edit, 9:14 PM: CNN.com is being far more conservative than the networks. WV, NM, and KS haven't been called yet. Some surprises for me are Wisconsin going for Obama, though Bachman may have helped him there. Word from MSNBC is that Fairfax and Arlington counties here in VA haven't really come in yet. That means the Virginia count may not be as bad as I thought earlier.

Edit, 9:22 PM: I was apparently wrong in remembering MN as a red state. They just said that Obama hasn't won any red states yet.

Check that, they just gave him Ohio, which is a key red state. 195-76.

Edit. 9:29 PM: Fox has Obama at 200-81. I need to check their map to see where they're getting the extra 10 votes from.

Edit, 9:31 PM: FL: Obama up by 100,000. IN: McCain by about 50,000. VA: McCain by about 15,000. NC: Obama by about 80,000. All too close for Fox News, which I'm watching now, to call. They also pointed out that McCain's campaign is "objecting" to their and the other networks, and the AP calling Pennsylvania already (about 1/4 of the votes are in) and Fox basically called him a whiny bitch.

Edit, 9:36 PM: NBC has caught up to Fox; they're at 200-85 now.

Edit, 9:37 PM: Olbermann on MSNBC just made a good point. Obama's (unofficially) at 200. CA is 55; HI is 4, WA is 11. That adds up to... 270. So, unofficially, game over.

Edit, 9:41 PM: The Dems now have 50 senate seats without the independents. As far as I know, no Democratic senate seats or electoral states have gone McCain's way so far.

Edit, 9:45 PM: Online: ABC has gone out on a limb and called Texas for McCain, putting the current score at 200-124. CBS News is holding back one of Maine's electoral votes (they split their votes, as does Nebraska). CNN's still pussyfooting around with NM, LA and AR.

Edit, 9:50 PM: Wow, Virginia's county map is whacked. The Democratic senate candidate won just about every candidate but Obama only leads in about 10 counties (though that includes NoVA, so he's still close in overall popular vote).

Edit, 10:01 PM: Utah's been given to McCain under the heading of "No Crap"; Iowa has flipped over to blue. Virginia is now showing a small Obama lead, with the more metropolitan counties (Fairfax, Arlington, etc.) being the ones that aren't done counting yet.

I planned on talking about differing coverage here, but this whole thing is just so interminably boring. NBC seems to keep kicking out to the Obama party in Chicago. MSNBC keeps talking about McCain's screw-ups -- not a surprise given their people.

Edit, 10:08 PM: Oh yeah. Heard that Ted "Series of Tubes, Bridge To Nowhere, Build Me a House" Stevens (R-AK) may not need to worry about being expelled from the Senate for his felony conviction; he may get voted out tonight. And Chris Matthews (D-MSNBC) just announced that every Republican in New England has lost their seats.

Edit, 10:18 PM: All the online sources effectively have 207-135. CBS is still holding back a Maine EV; CNN is still being stingy with Texas. Other than that they're all the same. Do these "proprietary" calculation methods involve having interns watch TV so they can do what everyone else does?

Edit, 10:20 PM: Adding the BBC's web site, they also have the 207-135 margin. They say they're using the AP's results, so them matching everyone else is no big surprise. They have a decent write-up of the networks' coverage methods in the broad strokes.

Edit, 10:23 PM: With the networks all kicking over to local coverage, I've put Fox News on opposite MSNBC. On the downside, I'm watching Fox News. On the upside, with these two channels on, I'm guaranteed to see a head explode by the end of the night. Maryland passed an initiative to allow early voting. CA is still voting, so there's no information yet on Proposition 8. (No is good, in this case.)

Edit, 10:27 PM: Obama's pulling away in Virginia (go, Potomac!) but in "Old Virginia" McCain would have a lead of about 10,000 votes.

Edit, 10:35 PM: Watching Fox News, they're not officially calling it, but their guy is pointing out Obama has a 150,000 or so vote lead, with the remaining precincts in heavily Democratic areas. So it's all but a sure thing. So since I'm as unofficial as it gets, I'm going to add FL's 27 EVs to Obama, giving him 234-138 (ABC and CBS have given Nebraska to McCain, NBC and CNN haven't).

Edit, 10:43 PM: Chuck Todd at MSNBC considers Prince William County to be "Real Virginia" to use Joe McCain's term, although I added it to Potomac. Given the spread of the DC Metro area, I'd say I'm closer to being accurate than he is.

Edit, 10:47 PM: Credit where due: Fox News, while its rightward bent is noticeable, is mostly sticking to straight analysis, with fewer of what I'd consider puff pieces compared to MSNBC. Olbermann and Matthews are wearing their biases on their sleeves a bit more. You have no idea how amazed I was to see Karl Rove having a rational discussion about potential Obama policy choices.

Edit, 10:55 PM: Fox News seems to have given Virginia to Obama. Of course, after I praise them for not doing puff pieces, they have some congressman beating the same drum about earmarks. Earmarks are a fraction of a percent of the overall budget. They're irrelevant unless you want to wander so far into the weeds that you don't accomplish anything. Which is what Congressional Republicans may have in mind.

Currently on FN: Obama 220-141. Adding Florida it's 247-141. California isn't closed yet; they have 55 EVs, so that's 302 right there. As I said before, that's your ballgame.

Edit, 11:00 PM: With the close of polls in California, Fox News has moved Obama to 275 electoral votes, making him the president-elect. Obviously the official counts must come in, but as conservative as people tend to be after the 2000 debacle I'd say you can bank on this.

Using CNN's calculator and the school of pulling numbers out of thin air, I'm projecting Obama to pick up NV, AZ, CO, MO, FL, NC and 1 EV in NE. Giving McCain MT, SD, IN, AK and 4 from NE, my final total is 375-163.

Now, Arizona may be wishful thinking, along with Missouri. North Carolina is still iffy. But I'd say I'm probably close.

Edit, 11:08 PM: Before I go to bed: In "Old Virginia" we have popular vote totals of 1,768,586 for McCain and 1,765,215 for Obama. We're still missing some votes from "Potomac" and about a quarter of West Virginia. So Obama may win both of my made-up states before the night is over :)

Still nothing on Florida, but I need sleep. Don't care too much about McCain's concession speech or Obama's acceptance speech. And save your Blazing Saddles references for 1/20/09... I'll make them with you :) I leave you with this picture, stolen without remorse from Pundit Kitchen:

Edit, 11/5/08 6:41 AM: Checking this morning I was right about Nevada, Colorado and Florida. I got Arizona wrong (McCain pulled farther ahead after I went to bed; I assumed the cities still had to report and would make things closer) and was wrong about the Nebraska split. Missouri and North Carolina are still too close to call, making Obama's network-unofficial tally 349-163. Oddly, CNN and ABC still have Indiana listed as too close while Fox, NBC, CBS and the AP have assigned to to Obama. Maybe there's an auto-recount? It is mighty close by the look of things.

Edit, 11/5/08 7:09 AM: Quick one, before I get ready to go to work. The Dems, if you include the independents, have 56 Senate seats with 4 still up in the air: Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia. I doubt they'll win all four. Maybe 3/4 with Georgia staying Republican. And Lieberman will probably caucus with the 'Pubs anyway. So the filibuster-proof majority of 60 the Dems would have liked is out the window, but finding one or two Republicans to go along will be easier than finding 10 was.

Of course, this assumes that, with the House, Senate and White House all under Democratic control for the first time since 1992-94 the Democrats actually stop going along with every damn thing the Republicans ask for/demand.

Edit, 11/5/08 12:52 PM: CNN has finished equivocating; they've given Indiana to Obama. ABC is still holding out. That brings up the totals to 349-163 if all of Nebraska goes for McCain. 26 EVs in North Carolina and Missouri are still undecided; they're both sitting on 50-49 majorities (Obama in NC, McCain in MO) and I assume they're in auto-recounts right now. Indiana was the same (50-49) but it slid into the D column, so that's all I can think of.

Just watched Obama's speech on Youtube. Dude knows how give a speech.

Edit, 11/6/08 9:17 AM: Nice to have an election where the stragglers don't matter, isn't it? I just read on a message board that Missouri hasn't officially been called yet because there are more provisional ballots to be sorted through (which can take up to 10 days, I think) than the current margin of victory for McCain. But the provisionals would have to go something like 85-15 Obama's way for him to win, and then there'd be a recount due to the closeness of the vote. But winning that many seems unlikely so I'm going to add to CBS News's count and make it Obama 349-174. You heard it here first, like it matters.

I'm guessing that with a similar margin, North Carolina's in the same boat. My question is: Why did I have to find this out on a message board instead of, say, from the news?

Edit, 11/6/08 4:30 PM: Before I leave work (hockey game to go to), I see that NBC has assigned all states now, with MO going to McCain and NC to Obama. Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS and the AP all have one or the other as undecided. So, my final tally, unless something changes, is 364-173. Which is a far wider margin than I predicted. And with that, I think I can safely stop updating this page.

Feeling the Heat?

November 03, 2008:

I needed a snack the other day and hit Taco Hell. It looks like Chipotle may be draining more of their customer base than I thought -- they actually offered a spicy taco that had something like sauce/marinade in it and a noticeable (if not exactly notable) spice level. If this change is permanent that's actually a good thing; the default menu is as bland as Mickey D's.

Bonus Bitching: Football

I'm no fan of Browns coach Romeo Crennel. In fact, I think the Browns almost made the playoffs last year in spite of him, not because of him. This year he's shown that he doesn't know what he's doing, making the same unoriginal play calls every set of downs.

They have a pro-bowl quarterback who's less accurate than Brett Favre at his worst. We have a multi-million-dollar receiver who leads the league in drops, we have a diva of a tight end who they're 3-0 without and 0-5 with. This team lacks innovation, lacks discipline, and can't even hack basic fundamentals. In short: Crennel needs to be fired. From a set of e-mails I sent during the game:

2:31 PM (Just before halftime)
Subject: Oh, look

Crennel's fucking up clock management again. Who'da thunk it? Good thing Dawson pulled his dumb ass out of the fire. 54-yarder!

3:52 PM (Mid-4th quarter)
Jesus Christ. Calling a run on 1st and 14 when you haven't been able to run all day. Why does this idiot still have a job?

4:11 PM (Just before the two-minute warning)
Ignore the time on the clock; that's the game. Was [Derek Anderson] trying to throw to his lineman, or was that a really fat running back? Goddamn they've sucked since they came out of the half.

Edit, 7:04 AM: I tend to be ambivalent on the whole Anderson/Quinn deal. Most of the problem, I think, is Crennel and the tone he sets in the locker room. I have no idea what Braylon Edwards's problem is. But first ditch the coach and get more than four plays into the rotation. Then we'll see if the wonderboy in training is needed.

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